AHPC

HydroPower

Arun Valley Hydropower Development

Rs. 255.00 +0.80 (+0.31%)

Open: 259
High: 259
Low: 252.2
Prev close: 254.2
Volume: 37,353
Turnover: 9,511,732
52W high: 307.60
52W low: 233.87

52-week range233.87 – 307.60

NSA Score

Buy

Neutral

Sell

Trend · Slightly Bullish 68

Momentum · Slightly Bullish 62

Volume · Slightly Bullish 57

Volatility · Slightly Bullish 59

Fibonacci Retracement (60-day swing)

Swing High 269.26 · Swing Low 233.87

0	269.26
0.236	260.91
0.382	255.74
0.5	251.56
0.618	247.39
0.786	241.44
1.0	233.87

Pivot Points

265.4

262.2

258.6

251.8

248.6

245.0

Pivot Point

255.4

Indicator	Category	Value	Signal	Why
EMA 13	Moving Averages	253.15	Buy	Price is NPR 1.85 (0.73%) above EMA 13. 13-day Exponential MA. Optimal for NEPSE (30% CAGR in backtest). Reacts fast to price changes.
EMA 20	Moving Averages	252.39	Buy	Price is NPR 2.61 (1.03%) above EMA 20. 20-day EMA. Standard short-term trend filter used by most traders.
EMA 50	Moving Averages	252.06	Buy	Price is NPR 2.94 (1.17%) above EMA 50. 50-day EMA. Medium-term trend. A cross of EMA 13 above EMA 50 is a strong buy signal for NEPSE.
SMA 13	Moving Averages	253.99	Buy	Price is NPR 1.01 (0.4%) above SMA 13. 13-day Simple MA. Research shows this period gives the best risk-adjusted return on NEPSE (Sharpe 1.71).
SMA 20	Moving Averages	253.47	Buy	Price is NPR 1.53 (0.6%) above SMA 20. 20-day SMA. Also the mid-line of Bollinger Bands. Acts as dynamic support/resistance.
SMA 50	Moving Averages	250.50	Buy	Price is NPR 4.5 (1.8%) above SMA 50. 50-day SMA. Institutional-level trend gauge. Widely watched by NEPSE fund managers.
SMA 200	Moving Averages	260.30	Sell	Price is NPR 5.3 (2.04%) below SMA 200. 200-day SMA. The dividing line between bull and bear markets. Price above = long-term bullish. Being below 200 SMA is bearish — historically NEPSE struggles to rally when below this level.
MACD (12,26,9)	Trend	-0.05	Sell	MACD line (1.30) is below Signal (1.34). Histogram: -0.04 (narrowing). Bearish pressure — MACD below signal suggests selling momentum. Note: Standard 12-26-9 parameters tend to underperform buy-and-hold on NEPSE. Check the optimized MACD below.
MACD (34,72,3)	Trend	0.13	Buy	MACD(-1.49) vs Signal(-1.62), Histogram: 0.13. Bullish — momentum favors buyers. These parameters (34,72,3) were validated on frontier markets like Dubai (85% hit ratio) and are better suited for NEPSE's slower cycles than standard MACD.
SuperTrend (7,3)	Trend	241.45	Buy	SuperTrend line is at NPR 241.44 (support). Price is NPR 13.56 above the line. Uptrend confirmed — the line acts as trailing support. A break below would flip to Sell. SuperTrend works well in trending NEPSE markets driven by herd behavior.
Parabolic SAR	Trend	251.99	Buy	SAR dot is below price at NPR 251.99 (bullish). Acts as a trailing stop — if price drops below 251.99, the trend flips bearish. Good for setting stop-loss levels.
ADX (14)	Trend	31.61	Buy	ADX is 31.6 (Strong trend). +DI=34.7, -DI=12.6. Bulls dominate — +DI is above -DI. The trend is strong enough to trade with confidence.
Ichimoku Cloud	Trend	257.50	Buy	Tenkan=257.50, Kijun=249.66 (bullish cross). Price is above the cloud (bullish). All signals align bullish — Tenkan above Kijun and price above cloud is the strongest Ichimoku buy signal.
Aroon (25)	Trend	28.00	Neutral	Aroon Up=36, Down=8. No clear trend. Aroon measures how recently the price hit a 25-day high (Up) or low (Down). Values above 70 confirm a trend.
DPO (20)	Trend	-0.20	Sell	DPO is -0.20. Negative — price is below its detrended average, suggesting a cyclical downturn. DPO removes long-term trend to show underlying cycles. Useful for timing entries within an existing trend.
RSI (14)	Momentum	56.29	Neutral	RSI is 56.3 — neutral zone. Standard zones are 70/30 but NEPSE research shows 60/40 zones work better due to strong momentum/herd behavior in Nepal's market. No extreme reading — RSI is not giving a strong signal on its own. Use with other indicators. RSI was the 2nd most important feature in ML models predicting NEPSE (arXiv 2026).
Stochastic (14,3,3)	Momentum	23.20	Buy	%K=23.2, %D=17.9. Bullish — %K is above %D, suggesting upward momentum. Stochastic compares closing price to its range over 14 days.
Stochastic RSI	Momentum	31.80	Neutral	StochRSI %K=31.8, %D=15.3. Mid-range — no extreme signal. StochRSI is a momentum indicator of RSI itself, making it more responsive than plain RSI.
CCI (20)	Momentum	36.10	Neutral	CCI is 36.1 (normal range). Between -100 and +100 is normal — no extreme deviation from average price. CCI measures how far price has deviated from its mean. Works well for identifying cyclical stocks in NEPSE.
Williams %R (14)	Momentum	-66.89	Neutral	Williams %R is -66.9. Mid-range — no extreme reading. Ranges from 0 to -100 where -50 is the midpoint.
ROC (12)	Momentum	-0.96	Sell	ROC is -0.96%. Price has lost 0.96% over the last 12 days. Negative momentum — selling pressure over the past 12 trading sessions.
TRIX (15)	Momentum	0.09	Buy	TRIX is 0.0883. Positive — triple-smoothed momentum confirms uptrend. TRIX filters out minor price fluctuations by applying three rounds of smoothing. Good for confirming the major trend direction and filtering noise in NEPSE's often-volatile daily movements.
Awesome Oscillator	Momentum	5.02	Buy	AO is 5.02. Positive — short-term momentum (5-bar) exceeds long-term (34-bar), indicating bullish pressure. Watch for zero-line crossovers — crossing above zero is a buy, below is a sell. Twin peaks divergence is also a strong signal.
Ultimate Osc (7,14,28)	Momentum	30.84	Neutral	UO is 30.8. Mid-range. The Ultimate Oscillator blends 7, 14, and 28-day periods to reduce false signals that plague single-period oscillators.
PPO (12,26)	Momentum	1.53	Buy	PPO is 1.53%, Histogram: -0.38. Positive — 12-day EMA is above 26-day EMA in percentage terms, confirming upward momentum. PPO is like MACD but expressed as a percentage, making it easier to compare across different price levels.
Coppock Curve	Momentum	0.91	Buy	Coppock is 0.91. Positive — originally designed to identify long-term buying opportunities. A turn from negative to positive is historically one of the most reliable buy signals. This indicator was designed for monthly charts but works on daily data too. Best for identifying major trend changes in NEPSE.
10d Rolling Mean	Momentum	253.71	Buy	10-day rolling mean is NPR 253.71. Price is NPR 1.29 above. This was the #1 most predictive feature in XGBoost ML models for NEPSE (arXiv 2026). Price above the 10-day mean suggests short-term bullish momentum.
ATR (14)	Volatility	5.81	—	ATR is NPR 5.81 (2.28% of price). This means the stock typically moves NPR 5.81 per day. Moderate volatility — normal trading conditions. Use ATR to set stop-losses: a common approach is 2x ATR (NPR 11.62) below entry.
Bollinger %B	Volatility	0.61	Neutral	BB %B is 0.61 (band position 61%). Bandwidth: 5.74%. Price is within normal range of the bands.
BB/KC Squeeze	Volatility		—	SQUEEZE ACTIVE — Bollinger Bands are inside Keltner Channels. This means volatility is very low and a big move is coming. Prepare for a breakout. The Squeeze indicator is widely used to anticipate explosive moves. When the squeeze releases, the direction of the breakout determines whether to go long or short.
5d Rolling Vol	Volatility	0.73	—	5-day rolling volatility is 0.73%. Very low (<1%) — market is calm. Breakout may be imminent. This was the 5th most important ML feature for predicting NEPSE returns.
Mass Index	Volatility	25.83	—	Mass Index is 25.83. Below 27 — no reversal bulge detected. Mass Index identifies trend reversals by measuring the range between high and low prices.
Ulcer Index	Volatility	2.08	—	Ulcer Index is 2.08 (low drawdown stress). It measures downside volatility by tracking the depth and duration of drawdowns from recent highs. Lower is better — values below 5 indicate a smooth uptrend, above 10 suggests painful drawdowns.
Donchian (20)	Volatility	265.45	Neutral	Price is at 58.8% of the 20-day Donchian Channel (Upper: 265.45, Lower: 240.05). Mid-channel — no extreme position. Donchian channels show the highest high and lowest low over 20 days.
MFI (14)	Volume	68.78	Neutral	MFI is 68.8. Normal range. Money Flow Index combines price and volume to measure buying/selling pressure. Unlike RSI which only uses price, MFI factors in volume for stronger signals.
CMF (20)	Volume	-0.11	Sell	CMF is -0.1130. Negative — money is flowing OUT of the stock ({strength} distribution). Sellers dominate with volume support. CMF above +0.1 or below -0.1 is a strong signal. Near zero means balanced buying/selling.
OBV Trend	Volume	—	Buy	OBV is rising over the last 20 days. Rising OBV confirms price increases are backed by volume — the uptrend is healthy. OBV adds volume on up-days and subtracts on down-days. The direction matters more than the absolute number.
VWAP	Volume	255.40	Sell	VWAP is NPR 255.40. Price is NPR 0.4 below VWAP. Price below VWAP means the average buyer is at a loss — bearish. VWAP acts as resistance.
Elder Force (13)	Volume	43844.37	Buy	EFI is 43,844. Positive — buying force (price change x volume) exceeds selling force. Large positive values mean strong institutional buying. Elder Force Index combines price direction with volume to measure the force behind moves.