AVYAN

Microfinance

Aviyan Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited

Rs. 1022.00 -2.00 (-0.20%)

Open: 1010
High: 1035
Low: 1010
Prev close: 1024
Volume: 2,120
Turnover: 2,164,387
52W high: 1366.00
52W low: 906.00

52-week range906.00 – 1366.00

NSA Score

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Sell

Trend · Slightly Bearish 44

Momentum · Slightly Bullish 61

Volume · Slightly Bullish 66

Volatility · Neutral 47

Fibonacci Retracement (60-day swing)

Swing High 1200.0 · Swing Low 971.9

0	1200.0
0.236	1146.17
0.382	1112.87
0.5	1085.95
0.618	1059.03
0.786	1020.71
1.0	971.9

Pivot Points

1059.67

1047.33

1034.67

1009.67

997.33

984.67

Pivot Point

1022.33

Indicator	Category	Value	Signal	Why
EMA 13	Moving Averages	1035.04	Sell	Price is NPR 13.04 (1.26%) below EMA 13. 13-day Exponential MA. Optimal for NEPSE (30% CAGR in backtest). Reacts fast to price changes.
EMA 20	Moving Averages	1036.77	Sell	Price is NPR 14.77 (1.42%) below EMA 20. 20-day EMA. Standard short-term trend filter used by most traders.
EMA 50	Moving Averages	1041.57	Sell	Price is NPR 19.57 (1.88%) below EMA 50. 50-day EMA. Medium-term trend. A cross of EMA 13 above EMA 50 is a strong buy signal for NEPSE.
SMA 13	Moving Averages	1042.07	Sell	Price is NPR 20.07 (1.93%) below SMA 13. 13-day Simple MA. Research shows this period gives the best risk-adjusted return on NEPSE (Sharpe 1.71).
SMA 20	Moving Averages	1045.00	Sell	Price is NPR 22.99 (2.2%) below SMA 20. 20-day SMA. Also the mid-line of Bollinger Bands. Acts as dynamic support/resistance.
SMA 50	Moving Averages	1035.90	Sell	Price is NPR 13.9 (1.34%) below SMA 50. 50-day SMA. Institutional-level trend gauge. Widely watched by NEPSE fund managers.
SMA 200	Moving Averages	1048.57	Sell	Price is NPR 26.57 (2.53%) below SMA 200. 200-day SMA. The dividing line between bull and bear markets. Price above = long-term bullish. Being below 200 SMA is bearish — historically NEPSE struggles to rally when below this level.
MACD (12,26,9)	Trend	-3.79	Sell	MACD line (-2.91) is below Signal (0.88). Histogram: -3.79 (expanding). Bearish pressure — MACD below signal suggests selling momentum. Note: Standard 12-26-9 parameters tend to underperform buy-and-hold on NEPSE. Check the optimized MACD below.
MACD (34,72,3)	Trend	-0.32	Sell	MACD(-7.61) vs Signal(-7.29), Histogram: -0.32. Bearish — sellers in control. These parameters (34,72,3) were validated on frontier markets like Dubai (85% hit ratio) and are better suited for NEPSE's slower cycles than standard MACD.
SuperTrend (7,3)	Trend	939.59	Buy	SuperTrend line is at NPR 939.59 (support). Price is NPR 82.41 above the line. Uptrend confirmed — the line acts as trailing support. A break below would flip to Sell. SuperTrend works well in trending NEPSE markets driven by herd behavior.
Parabolic SAR	Trend	1013.75	Buy	SAR dot is below price at NPR 1013.75 (bullish). Acts as a trailing stop — if price drops below 1013.75, the trend flips bearish. Good for setting stop-loss levels.
ADX (14)	Trend	16.06	Buy	ADX is 16.1 (Weak/absent trend). +DI=18.8, -DI=17.2. Bulls dominate — +DI is above -DI. The trend is weak — range-bound strategies may work better than trend-following.
Ichimoku Cloud	Trend	1035.00	Sell	Tenkan=1035.00, Kijun=1046.00 (bearish cross). Price is below the cloud (bearish). All signals align bearish — consider reducing positions.
Aroon (25)	Trend	36.00	Neutral	Aroon Up=36, Down=0. No clear trend. Aroon measures how recently the price hit a 25-day high (Up) or low (Down). Values above 70 confirm a trend.
DPO (20)	Trend	14.01	Buy	DPO is 14.01. Positive — price is above its 20-day detrended average, suggesting current cycle is in an upswing. DPO removes long-term trend to show underlying cycles. Useful for timing entries within an existing trend.
RSI (14)	Momentum	45.68	Neutral	RSI is 45.7 — neutral zone. Standard zones are 70/30 but NEPSE research shows 60/40 zones work better due to strong momentum/herd behavior in Nepal's market. No extreme reading — RSI is not giving a strong signal on its own. Use with other indicators. RSI was the 2nd most important feature in ML models predicting NEPSE (arXiv 2026).
Stochastic (14,3,3)	Momentum	15.50	Buy	%K=15.5, %D=12.7. Oversold — price is near the bottom of its 14-day range. Watch for %K crossing above %D for a buy entry.
Stochastic RSI	Momentum	11.16	Buy	StochRSI %K=11.2. Oversold — momentum is deeply stretched to the downside. A rise above 20 would confirm a buy signal.
CCI (20)	Momentum	-91.48	Neutral	CCI is -91.5 (normal range). Between -100 and +100 is normal — no extreme deviation from average price. CCI measures how far price has deviated from its mean. Works well for identifying cyclical stocks in NEPSE.
Williams %R (14)	Momentum	-79.24	Neutral	Williams %R is -79.2. Mid-range — no extreme reading. Ranges from 0 to -100 where -50 is the midpoint.
ROC (12)	Momentum	-2.69	Sell	ROC is -2.69%. Price has lost 2.69% over the last 12 days. Negative momentum — selling pressure over the past 12 trading sessions.
TRIX (15)	Momentum	0.02	Buy	TRIX is 0.0245. Positive — triple-smoothed momentum confirms uptrend. TRIX filters out minor price fluctuations by applying three rounds of smoothing. Good for confirming the major trend direction and filtering noise in NEPSE's often-volatile daily movements.
Awesome Oscillator	Momentum	-3.38	Sell	AO is -3.38. Negative — long-term momentum exceeds short-term, indicating bearish pressure. Watch for zero-line crossovers — crossing above zero is a buy, below is a sell. Twin peaks divergence is also a strong signal.
Ultimate Osc (7,14,28)	Momentum	56.06	Neutral	UO is 56.1. Mid-range. The Ultimate Oscillator blends 7, 14, and 28-day periods to reduce false signals that plague single-period oscillators.
PPO (12,26)	Momentum	0.70	Buy	PPO is 0.70%, Histogram: -0.47. Positive — 12-day EMA is above 26-day EMA in percentage terms, confirming upward momentum. PPO is like MACD but expressed as a percentage, making it easier to compare across different price levels.
Coppock Curve	Momentum	-3.00	Sell	Coppock is -3.00. Negative — long-term momentum is bearish. Wait for it to turn positive before considering long positions. This indicator was designed for monthly charts but works on daily data too. Best for identifying major trend changes in NEPSE.
10d Rolling Mean	Momentum	1037.76	Sell	10-day rolling mean is NPR 1037.76. Price is NPR 15.76 below. This was the #1 most predictive feature in XGBoost ML models for NEPSE (arXiv 2026). Price below the 10-day mean suggests short-term bearish momentum.
ATR (14)	Volatility	31.85	—	ATR is NPR 31.85 (3.12% of price). This means the stock typically moves NPR 31.85 per day. High volatility (>3%) — wider stop-losses needed, larger position risk. Use ATR to set stop-losses: a common approach is 2x ATR (NPR 63.71) below entry.
Bollinger %B	Volatility	0.25	Neutral	BB %B is 0.25 (band position 25%). Bandwidth: 8.67%. Price is within normal range of the bands.
BB/KC Squeeze	Volatility		—	SQUEEZE ACTIVE — Bollinger Bands are inside Keltner Channels. This means volatility is very low and a big move is coming. Prepare for a breakout. The Squeeze indicator is widely used to anticipate explosive moves. When the squeeze releases, the direction of the breakout determines whether to go long or short.
5d Rolling Vol	Volatility	1.12	—	5-day rolling volatility is 1.12%. Normal (1-2%) — typical daily fluctuation. This was the 5th most important ML feature for predicting NEPSE returns.
Mass Index	Volatility	24.73	—	Mass Index is 24.73. Below 27 — no reversal bulge detected. Mass Index identifies trend reversals by measuring the range between high and low prices.
Ulcer Index	Volatility	3.76	—	Ulcer Index is 3.76 (low drawdown stress). It measures downside volatility by tracking the depth and duration of drawdowns from recent highs. Lower is better — values below 5 indicate a smooth uptrend, above 10 suggests painful drawdowns.
Donchian (20)	Volatility	1117.00	Neutral	Price is at 31.7% of the 20-day Donchian Channel (Upper: 1117.00, Lower: 978.00). Mid-channel — no extreme position. Donchian channels show the highest high and lowest low over 20 days.
MFI (14)	Volume	32.73	Neutral	MFI is 32.7. Normal range. Money Flow Index combines price and volume to measure buying/selling pressure. Unlike RSI which only uses price, MFI factors in volume for stronger signals.
CMF (20)	Volume	0.22	Buy	CMF is 0.2205. Positive — money is flowing INTO the stock ({strength} accumulation). Buyers are in control with volume backing them. CMF above +0.1 or below -0.1 is a strong signal. Near zero means balanced buying/selling.
OBV Trend	Volume	—	Buy	OBV is rising over the last 20 days. Rising OBV confirms price increases are backed by volume — the uptrend is healthy. OBV adds volume on up-days and subtracts on down-days. The direction matters more than the absolute number.
VWAP	Volume	1022.33	Sell	VWAP is NPR 1022.33. Price is NPR 0.33 below VWAP. Price below VWAP means the average buyer is at a loss — bearish. VWAP acts as resistance.
Elder Force (13)	Volume	-212.72	Sell	EFI is -213. Negative — selling force exceeds buying force. Large negative values indicate aggressive selling. Elder Force Index combines price direction with volume to measure the force behind moves.