GCIL

Manu.& Pro.

Ghorahi Cement Industry Limited

Rs. 390.00 -1.40 (-0.36%)

Open: 385
High: 397.9
Low: 385
Prev close: 391.4
Volume: 17,991
Turnover: 7,049,282
52W high: 489.90
52W low: 315.50

52-week range315.50 – 489.90

NSA Score

Buy

Neutral

Sell

Trend · Slightly Bullish 61

Momentum · Slightly Bullish 60

Volume · Slightly Bullish 64

Volatility · Slightly Bullish 55

Fibonacci Retracement (60-day swing)

Swing High 421.3 · Swing Low 315.5

0	421.3
0.236	396.33
0.382	380.88
0.5	368.4
0.618	355.92
0.786	338.14
1.0	315.5

Pivot Points

409.83

403.87

396.93

384.03

378.07

371.13

Pivot Point

390.97

Indicator	Category	Value	Signal	Why
EMA 13	Moving Averages	386.12	Buy	Price is NPR 3.88 (1.0%) above EMA 13. 13-day Exponential MA. Optimal for NEPSE (30% CAGR in backtest). Reacts fast to price changes.
EMA 20	Moving Averages	383.16	Buy	Price is NPR 6.84 (1.79%) above EMA 20. 20-day EMA. Standard short-term trend filter used by most traders.
EMA 50	Moving Averages	375.25	Buy	Price is NPR 14.75 (3.93%) above EMA 50. 50-day EMA. Medium-term trend. A cross of EMA 13 above EMA 50 is a strong buy signal for NEPSE.
SMA 13	Moving Averages	388.88	Buy	Price is NPR 1.12 (0.29%) above SMA 13. 13-day Simple MA. Research shows this period gives the best risk-adjusted return on NEPSE (Sharpe 1.71).
SMA 20	Moving Averages	383.85	Buy	Price is NPR 6.15 (1.6%) above SMA 20. 20-day SMA. Also the mid-line of Bollinger Bands. Acts as dynamic support/resistance.
SMA 50	Moving Averages	366.82	Buy	Price is NPR 23.18 (6.32%) above SMA 50. 50-day SMA. Institutional-level trend gauge. Widely watched by NEPSE fund managers.
SMA 200	Moving Averages	400.98	Sell	Price is NPR 10.98 (2.74%) below SMA 200. 200-day SMA. The dividing line between bull and bear markets. Price above = long-term bullish. Being below 200 SMA is bearish — historically NEPSE struggles to rally when below this level.
MACD (12,26,9)	Trend	-1.02	Sell	MACD line (5.89) is below Signal (6.91). Histogram: -1.02 (expanding). Bearish pressure — MACD below signal suggests selling momentum. Note: Standard 12-26-9 parameters tend to underperform buy-and-hold on NEPSE. Check the optimized MACD below.
MACD (34,72,3)	Trend	0.32	Buy	MACD(2.02) vs Signal(1.69), Histogram: 0.32. Bullish — momentum favors buyers. These parameters (34,72,3) were validated on frontier markets like Dubai (85% hit ratio) and are better suited for NEPSE's slower cycles than standard MACD.
SuperTrend (7,3)	Trend	355.56	Buy	SuperTrend line is at NPR 355.56 (support). Price is NPR 34.44 above the line. Uptrend confirmed — the line acts as trailing support. A break below would flip to Sell. SuperTrend works well in trending NEPSE markets driven by herd behavior.
Parabolic SAR	Trend	375.91	Buy	SAR dot is below price at NPR 375.91 (bullish). Acts as a trailing stop — if price drops below 375.91, the trend flips bearish. Good for setting stop-loss levels.
ADX (14)	Trend	27.80	Buy	ADX is 27.8 (Strong trend). +DI=24.0, -DI=15.6. Bulls dominate — +DI is above -DI. The trend is strong enough to trade with confidence.
Ichimoku Cloud	Trend	382.90	Neutral	Tenkan=382.90, Kijun=391.80 (bearish cross). Price is above the cloud (bullish). Mixed signals — wait for clearer direction.
Aroon (25)	Trend	36.00	Neutral	Aroon Up=64, Down=28. No clear trend. Aroon measures how recently the price hit a 25-day high (Up) or low (Down). Values above 70 confirm a trend.
DPO (20)	Trend	-9.05	Sell	DPO is -9.04. Negative — price is below its detrended average, suggesting a cyclical downturn. DPO removes long-term trend to show underlying cycles. Useful for timing entries within an existing trend.
RSI (14)	Momentum	56.17	Neutral	RSI is 56.2 — neutral zone. Standard zones are 70/30 but NEPSE research shows 60/40 zones work better due to strong momentum/herd behavior in Nepal's market. No extreme reading — RSI is not giving a strong signal on its own. Use with other indicators. RSI was the 2nd most important feature in ML models predicting NEPSE (arXiv 2026).
Stochastic (14,3,3)	Momentum	41.23	Buy	%K=41.2, %D=37.0. Bullish — %K is above %D, suggesting upward momentum. Stochastic compares closing price to its range over 14 days.
Stochastic RSI	Momentum	27.72	Neutral	StochRSI %K=27.7, %D=19.2. Mid-range — no extreme signal. StochRSI is a momentum indicator of RSI itself, making it more responsive than plain RSI.
CCI (20)	Momentum	59.82	Neutral	CCI is 59.8 (normal range). Between -100 and +100 is normal — no extreme deviation from average price. CCI measures how far price has deviated from its mean. Works well for identifying cyclical stocks in NEPSE.
Williams %R (14)	Momentum	-54.53	Neutral	Williams %R is -54.5. Mid-range — no extreme reading. Ranges from 0 to -100 where -50 is the midpoint.
ROC (12)	Momentum	2.09	Buy	ROC is 2.09%. Price has gained 2.09% over the last 12 days. Positive momentum — buyers have been in control recently.
TRIX (15)	Momentum	0.29	Buy	TRIX is 0.2927. Positive — triple-smoothed momentum confirms uptrend. TRIX filters out minor price fluctuations by applying three rounds of smoothing. Good for confirming the major trend direction and filtering noise in NEPSE's often-volatile daily movements.
Awesome Oscillator	Momentum	10.25	Buy	AO is 10.25. Positive — short-term momentum (5-bar) exceeds long-term (34-bar), indicating bullish pressure. Watch for zero-line crossovers — crossing above zero is a buy, below is a sell. Twin peaks divergence is also a strong signal.
Ultimate Osc (7,14,28)	Momentum	46.58	Neutral	UO is 46.6. Mid-range. The Ultimate Oscillator blends 7, 14, and 28-day periods to reduce false signals that plague single-period oscillators.
PPO (12,26)	Momentum	1.60	Buy	PPO is 1.60%, Histogram: -0.70. Positive — 12-day EMA is above 26-day EMA in percentage terms, confirming upward momentum. PPO is like MACD but expressed as a percentage, making it easier to compare across different price levels.
Coppock Curve	Momentum	6.03	Buy	Coppock is 6.03. Positive — originally designed to identify long-term buying opportunities. A turn from negative to positive is historically one of the most reliable buy signals. This indicator was designed for monthly charts but works on daily data too. Best for identifying major trend changes in NEPSE.
10d Rolling Mean	Momentum	389.74	Buy	10-day rolling mean is NPR 389.74. Price is NPR 0.26 above. This was the #1 most predictive feature in XGBoost ML models for NEPSE (arXiv 2026). Price above the 10-day mean suggests short-term bullish momentum.
ATR (14)	Volatility	14.10	—	ATR is NPR 14.10 (3.61% of price). This means the stock typically moves NPR 14.10 per day. High volatility (>3%) — wider stop-losses needed, larger position risk. Use ATR to set stop-losses: a common approach is 2x ATR (NPR 28.19) below entry.
Bollinger %B	Volatility	0.65	Neutral	BB %B is 0.65 (band position 65%). Bandwidth: 10.73%. Price is within normal range of the bands.
BB/KC Squeeze	Volatility		—	SQUEEZE ACTIVE — Bollinger Bands are inside Keltner Channels. This means volatility is very low and a big move is coming. Prepare for a breakout. The Squeeze indicator is widely used to anticipate explosive moves. When the squeeze releases, the direction of the breakout determines whether to go long or short.
5d Rolling Vol	Volatility	1.55	—	5-day rolling volatility is 1.55%. Normal (1-2%) — typical daily fluctuation. This was the 5th most important ML feature for predicting NEPSE returns.
Mass Index	Volatility	26.63	—	Mass Index is 26.63. Below 27 — no reversal bulge detected. Mass Index identifies trend reversals by measuring the range between high and low prices.
Ulcer Index	Volatility	3.46	—	Ulcer Index is 3.46 (low drawdown stress). It measures downside volatility by tracking the depth and duration of drawdowns from recent highs. Lower is better — values below 5 indicate a smooth uptrend, above 10 suggests painful drawdowns.
Donchian (20)	Volatility	421.30	Neutral	Price is at 46.9% of the 20-day Donchian Channel (Upper: 421.30, Lower: 362.30). Mid-channel — no extreme position. Donchian channels show the highest high and lowest low over 20 days.
MFI (14)	Volume	67.03	Neutral	MFI is 67.0. Normal range. Money Flow Index combines price and volume to measure buying/selling pressure. Unlike RSI which only uses price, MFI factors in volume for stronger signals.
CMF (20)	Volume	0.05	Buy	CMF is 0.0474. Positive — money is flowing INTO the stock ({strength} accumulation). Buyers are in control with volume backing them. CMF above +0.1 or below -0.1 is a strong signal. Near zero means balanced buying/selling.
OBV Trend	Volume	—	Buy	OBV is rising over the last 20 days. Rising OBV confirms price increases are backed by volume — the uptrend is healthy. OBV adds volume on up-days and subtracts on down-days. The direction matters more than the absolute number.
VWAP	Volume	390.97	Sell	VWAP is NPR 390.97. Price is NPR 0.97 below VWAP. Price below VWAP means the average buyer is at a loss — bearish. VWAP acts as resistance.
Elder Force (13)	Volume	185006.20	Buy	EFI is 185,006. Positive — buying force (price change x volume) exceeds selling force. Large positive values mean strong institutional buying. Elder Force Index combines price direction with volume to measure the force behind moves.