KMCDB

Microfinance

Kalika Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha

Rs. 780.00 -5.00 (-0.64%)

Open: 785
High: 791
Low: 780
Prev close: 785
Volume: 1,645
Turnover: 1,286,580
52W high: 1080.66
52W low: 735.00

52-week range735.00 – 1080.66

NSA Score

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Sell

Trend · Slightly Bearish 41

Momentum · Slightly Bullish 61

Volume · Bullish 81

Volatility · Neutral 45

Fibonacci Retracement (60-day swing)

Swing High 884.9 · Swing Low 735.0

0	884.9
0.236	849.52
0.382	827.64
0.5	809.95
0.618	792.26
0.786	767.08
1.0	735.0

Pivot Points

798.33

794.67

787.33

776.33

772.67

765.33

Pivot Point

783.67

Indicator	Category	Value	Signal	Why
EMA 13	Moving Averages	797.71	Sell	Price is NPR 17.71 (2.22%) below EMA 13. 13-day Exponential MA. Optimal for NEPSE (30% CAGR in backtest). Reacts fast to price changes.
EMA 20	Moving Averages	800.67	Sell	Price is NPR 20.67 (2.58%) below EMA 20. 20-day EMA. Standard short-term trend filter used by most traders.
EMA 50	Moving Averages	803.37	Sell	Price is NPR 23.37 (2.91%) below EMA 50. 50-day EMA. Medium-term trend. A cross of EMA 13 above EMA 50 is a strong buy signal for NEPSE.
SMA 13	Moving Averages	804.12	Sell	Price is NPR 24.12 (3.0%) below SMA 13. 13-day Simple MA. Research shows this period gives the best risk-adjusted return on NEPSE (Sharpe 1.71).
SMA 20	Moving Averages	813.50	Sell	Price is NPR 33.5 (4.12%) below SMA 20. 20-day SMA. Also the mid-line of Bollinger Bands. Acts as dynamic support/resistance.
SMA 50	Moving Averages	793.45	Sell	Price is NPR 13.45 (1.7%) below SMA 50. 50-day SMA. Institutional-level trend gauge. Widely watched by NEPSE fund managers.
SMA 200	Moving Averages	877.64	Sell	Price is NPR 97.64 (11.13%) below SMA 200. 200-day SMA. The dividing line between bull and bear markets. Price above = long-term bullish. Being below 200 SMA is bearish — historically NEPSE struggles to rally when below this level.
MACD (12,26,9)	Trend	-6.03	Sell	MACD line (-4.30) is below Signal (1.73). Histogram: -6.03 (expanding). Bearish pressure — MACD below signal suggests selling momentum. Note: Standard 12-26-9 parameters tend to underperform buy-and-hold on NEPSE. Check the optimized MACD below.
MACD (34,72,3)	Trend	-0.41	Sell	MACD(-8.60) vs Signal(-8.19), Histogram: -0.41. Bearish — sellers in control. These parameters (34,72,3) were validated on frontier markets like Dubai (85% hit ratio) and are better suited for NEPSE's slower cycles than standard MACD.
SuperTrend (7,3)	Trend	754.73	Buy	SuperTrend line is at NPR 754.73 (support). Price is NPR 25.27 above the line. Uptrend confirmed — the line acts as trailing support. A break below would flip to Sell. SuperTrend works well in trending NEPSE markets driven by herd behavior.
Parabolic SAR	Trend	776.00	Buy	SAR dot is below price at NPR 776.00 (bullish). Acts as a trailing stop — if price drops below 776.00, the trend flips bearish. Good for setting stop-loss levels.
ADX (14)	Trend	21.11	Sell	ADX is 21.1 (Developing trend). +DI=14.3, -DI=22.7. Bears dominate — -DI is above +DI. The trend is weak — range-bound strategies may work better than trend-following.
Ichimoku Cloud	Trend	798.60	Neutral	Tenkan=798.60, Kijun=809.95 (bearish cross). Price is inside the cloud (indecisive). Mixed signals — wait for clearer direction.
Aroon (25)	Trend	40.00	Neutral	Aroon Up=52, Down=12. No clear trend. Aroon measures how recently the price hit a 25-day high (Up) or low (Down). Values above 70 confirm a trend.
DPO (20)	Trend	-3.50	Sell	DPO is -3.50. Negative — price is below its detrended average, suggesting a cyclical downturn. DPO removes long-term trend to show underlying cycles. Useful for timing entries within an existing trend.
RSI (14)	Momentum	41.43	Neutral	RSI is 41.4 — neutral zone. Standard zones are 70/30 but NEPSE research shows 60/40 zones work better due to strong momentum/herd behavior in Nepal's market. No extreme reading — RSI is not giving a strong signal on its own. Use with other indicators. RSI was the 2nd most important feature in ML models predicting NEPSE (arXiv 2026).
Stochastic (14,3,3)	Momentum	15.51	Buy	%K=15.5, %D=13.8. Oversold — price is near the bottom of its 14-day range. Watch for %K crossing above %D for a buy entry.
Stochastic RSI	Momentum	4.25	Buy	StochRSI %K=4.3. Oversold — momentum is deeply stretched to the downside. A rise above 20 would confirm a buy signal.
CCI (20)	Momentum	-103.90	Buy	CCI is -103.9 (oversold). Below -100 means price is well below average — potential bottoming. CCI measures how far price has deviated from its mean. Works well for identifying cyclical stocks in NEPSE.
Williams %R (14)	Momentum	-85.49	Buy	Williams %R is -85.5. Oversold zone (below -80). Price is near the bottom of its 14-day range. May bounce — but confirm with other indicators before buying.
ROC (12)	Momentum	-8.77	Sell	ROC is -8.77%. Price has lost 8.77% over the last 12 days. Negative momentum — selling pressure over the past 12 trading sessions. Strong momentum (>5%) suggests trend acceleration.
TRIX (15)	Momentum	0.06	Buy	TRIX is 0.0589. Positive — triple-smoothed momentum confirms uptrend. TRIX filters out minor price fluctuations by applying three rounds of smoothing. Good for confirming the major trend direction and filtering noise in NEPSE's often-volatile daily movements.
Awesome Oscillator	Momentum	-8.55	Sell	AO is -8.55. Negative — long-term momentum exceeds short-term, indicating bearish pressure. Watch for zero-line crossovers — crossing above zero is a buy, below is a sell. Twin peaks divergence is also a strong signal.
Ultimate Osc (7,14,28)	Momentum	42.75	Neutral	UO is 42.7. Mid-range. The Ultimate Oscillator blends 7, 14, and 28-day periods to reduce false signals that plague single-period oscillators.
PPO (12,26)	Momentum	-0.75	Sell	PPO is -0.75%, Histogram: -2.01. Negative — short-term EMA is below long-term, indicating downward pressure. PPO is like MACD but expressed as a percentage, making it easier to compare across different price levels.
Coppock Curve	Momentum	-9.78	Sell	Coppock is -9.78. Negative — long-term momentum is bearish. Wait for it to turn positive before considering long positions. This indicator was designed for monthly charts but works on daily data too. Best for identifying major trend changes in NEPSE.
10d Rolling Mean	Momentum	796.05	Sell	10-day rolling mean is NPR 796.05. Price is NPR 16.05 below. This was the #1 most predictive feature in XGBoost ML models for NEPSE (arXiv 2026). Price below the 10-day mean suggests short-term bearish momentum.
ATR (14)	Volatility	34.90	—	ATR is NPR 34.90 (4.47% of price). This means the stock typically moves NPR 34.90 per day. High volatility (>3%) — wider stop-losses needed, larger position risk. Use ATR to set stop-losses: a common approach is 2x ATR (NPR 69.80) below entry.
Bollinger %B	Volatility	0.18	Buy	BB %B is 0.18 — price is in the lower 20% of the bands. Approaching oversold. Bandwidth: 13.00%.
BB/KC Squeeze	Volatility		—	SQUEEZE ACTIVE — Bollinger Bands are inside Keltner Channels. This means volatility is very low and a big move is coming. Prepare for a breakout. The Squeeze indicator is widely used to anticipate explosive moves. When the squeeze releases, the direction of the breakout determines whether to go long or short.
5d Rolling Vol	Volatility	1.14	—	5-day rolling volatility is 1.14%. Normal (1-2%) — typical daily fluctuation. This was the 5th most important ML feature for predicting NEPSE returns.
Mass Index	Volatility	26.33	—	Mass Index is 26.33. Below 27 — no reversal bulge detected. Mass Index identifies trend reversals by measuring the range between high and low prices.
Ulcer Index	Volatility	7.35	—	Ulcer Index is 7.35 (moderate drawdown stress). It measures downside volatility by tracking the depth and duration of drawdowns from recent highs. Lower is better — values below 5 indicate a smooth uptrend, above 10 suggests painful drawdowns.
Donchian (20)	Volatility	884.90	Buy	Price is at 14.5% of the 20-day Donchian Channel (Upper: 884.90, Lower: 762.20). Near the bottom — potential support area. A break below could signal a new downtrend.
MFI (14)	Volume	11.67	Buy	MFI is 11.7. Oversold — selling pressure with volume is extreme. Potential buying opportunity as selling may be exhausted.
CMF (20)	Volume	0.25	Buy	CMF is 0.2467. Positive — money is flowing INTO the stock ({strength} accumulation). Buyers are in control with volume backing them. CMF above +0.1 or below -0.1 is a strong signal. Near zero means balanced buying/selling.
OBV Trend	Volume	—	Buy	OBV is rising over the last 20 days. Rising OBV confirms price increases are backed by volume — the uptrend is healthy. OBV adds volume on up-days and subtracts on down-days. The direction matters more than the absolute number.
VWAP	Volume	783.67	Sell	VWAP is NPR 783.67. Price is NPR 3.67 below VWAP. Price below VWAP means the average buyer is at a loss — bearish. VWAP acts as resistance.
Elder Force (13)	Volume	8939.37	Buy	EFI is 8,939. Positive — buying force (price change x volume) exceeds selling force. Large positive values mean strong institutional buying. Elder Force Index combines price direction with volume to measure the force behind moves.