UPCL

HydroPower

Universal Power Company Ltd

Rs. 333.50 +10.50 (+3.25%)

Open: 310
High: 333.5
Low: 310
Prev close: 323
Volume: 44,725
Turnover: 14,702,790
52W high: 430.40
52W low: 310.00

52-week range310.00 – 430.40

NSA Score

Neutral

Buy

Neutral

Sell

Trend · Slightly Bearish 38

Momentum · Neutral 49

Volume · Slightly Bullish 57

Volatility · Neutral 51

Fibonacci Retracement (60-day swing)

Swing High 370.0 · Swing Low 310.0

0	370.0
0.236	355.84
0.382	347.08
0.5	340.0
0.618	332.92
0.786	322.84
1.0	310.0

Pivot Points

364.83

349.17

341.33

317.83

302.17

294.33

Pivot Point

325.67

Indicator	Category	Value	Signal	Why
EMA 13	Moving Averages	331.18	Buy	Price is NPR 2.32 (0.7%) above EMA 13. 13-day Exponential MA. Optimal for NEPSE (30% CAGR in backtest). Reacts fast to price changes.
EMA 20	Moving Averages	333.30	Buy	Price is NPR 0.2 (0.06%) above EMA 20. 20-day EMA. Standard short-term trend filter used by most traders.
EMA 50	Moving Averages	340.54	Sell	Price is NPR 7.04 (2.07%) below EMA 50. 50-day EMA. Medium-term trend. A cross of EMA 13 above EMA 50 is a strong buy signal for NEPSE.
SMA 13	Moving Averages	331.51	Buy	Price is NPR 1.99 (0.6%) above SMA 13. 13-day Simple MA. Research shows this period gives the best risk-adjusted return on NEPSE (Sharpe 1.71).
SMA 20	Moving Averages	334.63	Sell	Price is NPR 1.12 (0.33%) below SMA 20. 20-day SMA. Also the mid-line of Bollinger Bands. Acts as dynamic support/resistance.
SMA 50	Moving Averages	341.03	Sell	Price is NPR 7.53 (2.21%) below SMA 50. 50-day SMA. Institutional-level trend gauge. Widely watched by NEPSE fund managers.
SMA 200	Moving Averages	365.51	Sell	Price is NPR 32.01 (8.76%) below SMA 200. 200-day SMA. The dividing line between bull and bear markets. Price above = long-term bullish. Being below 200 SMA is bearish — historically NEPSE struggles to rally when below this level.
MACD (12,26,9)	Trend	-0.48	Sell	MACD line (-4.05) is below Signal (-3.57). Histogram: -0.48 (narrowing). Bearish pressure — MACD below signal suggests selling momentum. Note: Standard 12-26-9 parameters tend to underperform buy-and-hold on NEPSE. Check the optimized MACD below.
MACD (34,72,3)	Trend	-0.05	Sell	MACD(-8.12) vs Signal(-8.07), Histogram: -0.05. Bearish — sellers in control. These parameters (34,72,3) were validated on frontier markets like Dubai (85% hit ratio) and are better suited for NEPSE's slower cycles than standard MACD.
SuperTrend (7,3)	Trend	346.74	Sell	SuperTrend line is at NPR 346.74 (resistance). Price is NPR 13.24 below the line. Downtrend active — the line acts as resistance overhead. A break above would flip to Buy. SuperTrend works well in trending NEPSE markets driven by herd behavior.
Parabolic SAR	Trend	336.97	Buy	SAR dot is below price at NPR 336.97 (bullish). Acts as a trailing stop — if price drops below 336.97, the trend flips bearish. Good for setting stop-loss levels.
ADX (14)	Trend	20.34	Sell	ADX is 20.3 (Developing trend). +DI=11.9, -DI=26.0. Bears dominate — -DI is above +DI. The trend is weak — range-bound strategies may work better than trend-following.
Ichimoku Cloud	Trend	322.50	Sell	Tenkan=322.50, Kijun=337.50 (bearish cross). Price is below the cloud (bearish). All signals align bearish — consider reducing positions.
Aroon (25)	Trend	-80.00	Sell	Aroon Up=20, Down=100. Strong downtrend — recent new lows with no new highs. Selling pressure dominates.
DPO (20)	Trend	1.38	Buy	DPO is 1.38. Positive — price is above its 20-day detrended average, suggesting current cycle is in an upswing. DPO removes long-term trend to show underlying cycles. Useful for timing entries within an existing trend.
RSI (14)	Momentum	48.27	Neutral	RSI is 48.3 — neutral zone. Standard zones are 70/30 but NEPSE research shows 60/40 zones work better due to strong momentum/herd behavior in Nepal's market. No extreme reading — RSI is not giving a strong signal on its own. Use with other indicators. RSI was the 2nd most important feature in ML models predicting NEPSE (arXiv 2026).
Stochastic (14,3,3)	Momentum	35.88	Buy	%K=35.9, %D=27.0. Bullish — %K is above %D, suggesting upward momentum. Stochastic compares closing price to its range over 14 days.
Stochastic RSI	Momentum	27.45	Neutral	StochRSI %K=27.4, %D=9.5. Mid-range — no extreme signal. StochRSI is a momentum indicator of RSI itself, making it more responsive than plain RSI.
CCI (20)	Momentum	-99.21	Neutral	CCI is -99.2 (normal range). Between -100 and +100 is normal — no extreme deviation from average price. CCI measures how far price has deviated from its mean. Works well for identifying cyclical stocks in NEPSE.
Williams %R (14)	Momentum	-41.25	Neutral	Williams %R is -41.2. Mid-range — no extreme reading. Ranges from 0 to -100 where -50 is the midpoint.
ROC (12)	Momentum	-2.20	Sell	ROC is -2.20%. Price has lost 2.20% over the last 12 days. Negative momentum — selling pressure over the past 12 trading sessions.
TRIX (15)	Momentum	-0.14	Sell	TRIX is -0.1443. Negative — triple-smoothed momentum confirms downtrend. TRIX filters out minor price fluctuations by applying three rounds of smoothing. Good for confirming the major trend direction and filtering noise in NEPSE's often-volatile daily movements.
Awesome Oscillator	Momentum	-12.26	Sell	AO is -12.26. Negative — long-term momentum exceeds short-term, indicating bearish pressure. Watch for zero-line crossovers — crossing above zero is a buy, below is a sell. Twin peaks divergence is also a strong signal.
Ultimate Osc (7,14,28)	Momentum	61.81	Neutral	UO is 61.8. Mid-range. The Ultimate Oscillator blends 7, 14, and 28-day periods to reduce false signals that plague single-period oscillators.
PPO (12,26)	Momentum	-1.38	Sell	PPO is -1.38%, Histogram: -0.75. Negative — short-term EMA is below long-term, indicating downward pressure. PPO is like MACD but expressed as a percentage, making it easier to compare across different price levels.
Coppock Curve	Momentum	-7.35	Sell	Coppock is -7.35. Negative — long-term momentum is bearish. Wait for it to turn positive before considering long positions. This indicator was designed for monthly charts but works on daily data too. Best for identifying major trend changes in NEPSE.
10d Rolling Mean	Momentum	329.66	Buy	10-day rolling mean is NPR 329.66. Price is NPR 3.84 above. This was the #1 most predictive feature in XGBoost ML models for NEPSE (arXiv 2026). Price above the 10-day mean suggests short-term bullish momentum.
ATR (14)	Volatility	10.18	—	ATR is NPR 10.18 (3.05% of price). This means the stock typically moves NPR 10.18 per day. High volatility (>3%) — wider stop-losses needed, larger position risk. Use ATR to set stop-losses: a common approach is 2x ATR (NPR 20.36) below entry.
Bollinger %B	Volatility	0.46	Neutral	BB %B is 0.46 (band position 46%). Bandwidth: 8.32%. Price is within normal range of the bands.
BB/KC Squeeze	Volatility		—	SQUEEZE ACTIVE — Bollinger Bands are inside Keltner Channels. This means volatility is very low and a big move is coming. Prepare for a breakout. The Squeeze indicator is widely used to anticipate explosive moves. When the squeeze releases, the direction of the breakout determines whether to go long or short.
5d Rolling Vol	Volatility	1.84	—	5-day rolling volatility is 1.84%. Normal (1-2%) — typical daily fluctuation. This was the 5th most important ML feature for predicting NEPSE returns.
Mass Index	Volatility	25.19	—	Mass Index is 25.19. Below 27 — no reversal bulge detected. Mass Index identifies trend reversals by measuring the range between high and low prices.
Ulcer Index	Volatility	4.95	—	Ulcer Index is 4.95 (low drawdown stress). It measures downside volatility by tracking the depth and duration of drawdowns from recent highs. Lower is better — values below 5 indicate a smooth uptrend, above 10 suggests painful drawdowns.
Donchian (20)	Volatility	360.00	Neutral	Price is at 47.0% of the 20-day Donchian Channel (Upper: 360.00, Lower: 310.00). Mid-channel — no extreme position. Donchian channels show the highest high and lowest low over 20 days.
MFI (14)	Volume	21.72	Neutral	MFI is 21.7. Normal range. Money Flow Index combines price and volume to measure buying/selling pressure. Unlike RSI which only uses price, MFI factors in volume for stronger signals.
CMF (20)	Volume	-0.18	Sell	CMF is -0.1799. Negative — money is flowing OUT of the stock ({strength} distribution). Sellers dominate with volume support. CMF above +0.1 or below -0.1 is a strong signal. Near zero means balanced buying/selling.
OBV Trend	Volume	—	Sell	OBV is falling over the last 20 days. Falling OBV suggests volume is declining or moving to sellers — bearish divergence if price is still rising. OBV adds volume on up-days and subtracts on down-days. The direction matters more than the absolute number.
VWAP	Volume	325.67	Buy	VWAP is NPR 325.67. Price is NPR 7.83 above VWAP. Price above VWAP means the average buyer is in profit — bullish. Institutional traders often use VWAP as a benchmark.
Elder Force (13)	Volume	37935.98	Buy	EFI is 37,936. Positive — buying force (price change x volume) exceeds selling force. Large positive values mean strong institutional buying. Elder Force Index combines price direction with volume to measure the force behind moves.